MARAWI CITY, Philippines—Part from pointing to the usual hitches, anomalies and controversies surrounding elections in Lanao del Sur, including its component city of Marawi, poll monitors are worried about the meteoric rise in the number of registered voters between 2004 and 2007.
This is the principal reason they are saying the May 14 balloting is flawed from the very start. From only 275,572 voters in 2004, Lanao del Sur now has 396,722 voters, or an increase of 43.9 percent. This has dwarfed Northern Mindanao region’s mere four-percent hike in voting population between 2004 and 2007.
Was there a confluence of major demographic events—the coming into voting age of so many Maranao youngsters and the re-settlement in the province of already voting population—for the past three years, so that its voting population grew by 121,150?
A look at the basic numbers could give leads to this mystery.
Data from the National Statistics Office (NSO) shows a decrease in the population of Lanao del Sur between 1975 and 1980, as documented in the 1980 census.
An official explanation for the decrease is the mass evacuation of residents as a result of armed conflict.
Based on the figures, the province lost almost a fifth of its population in five years. Incidentally, these years also marked the expansion of Maranao migrant communities in the cities of Iligan, Ozamiz, Oroquieta and even Dipolog.
During the period of relative normalcy beginning in 1986, the post-Edsa 1 years, people began to return to their villages, which sparked a large increase in the population.
The Ramos’ appeasement years with Moro rebels brought some stability to the lives of Maranao people, and so with the province’s demography.
Growth years
It can be said then that the period between 1990 and 2000 are the “natural boom years” for its population, coming out of decades of a cycle of dislocation and relocation because of the secessionist war.
The period between 1980 and 1990 showed the highest rate of population increase for both Lanao del Sur and Marawi City. The “re-settlement” of communities as former evacuees return to their old villages could have a large influence on this trend.
And this can have implications on the number of registered voters in the years that followed.
A look into the statistics of registered voters for both Lanao del Sur and Marawi City for the periods 2004 and 2007 showed staggering increases: 43.9 percent and 51.7 percent, respectively.
Under the present election laws, a Filipino citizen who is at least 18 years old on an election date can vote. Those turning 18 years old on May 14 and duly registered as voter can cast a ballot.
Therefore, a child born today can become an eligible voter 18 years from now.
As such, the increase in Lanao del Sur and Marawi’s number of registered voters between 2004 and 2007 can be traced 18 years back, or 1987 for 2005, 1988 for 2006, and 1989 for 2007.
But in 1989, those born only from Jan. 1 to May 14, or the first four and a half months of the year are eligible. Add those who were born May 11, 1986, to Dec. 31, 1986, some seven and a half months period, who were not yet eligible to vote on May 10, 2004, but subsequently qualified in the next election. In all, that is 36 months from May 11, 1986, to May 14, 1989.
Based on the computed population growth rate of the province, 15,802 individuals were added to Lanao del Sur’s population every year between 1980 and 1990. That is an average of 1,317 per month. Within the same period, 3,729 individuals are added to Marawi City’s population annually, or an average of 311 per month.
Assuming such hike in the people count is wholly from net birth count, new voters for the May 14 midterm polls born between May 11, 1986, to May 14, 1989, are as follows: Lanao del Sur, 47,412; and Marawi City, 11,196. This is arrived at by multiplying 36 months with the average monthly growth in population count.
This is only theoretical as the actual voter registrants from among the new eligible voters can be lower as a result of disinterest or simply a failure to register.
Where are the others?
The difference between the actual voters increase and the projected growth based on population figures is 73,738 for Lanao del Sur, and 8,049 for Marawi city.
Where are they? Where have they come from?
A possibility could be that among the new voters are adult migrants who are eligible to vote as they settled in Lanao del Sur and Marawi.
Another possibility is that among the new voters are individuals who became eligible to vote even prior to the 2004 or 2007 elections, but have only decided to register now.
Probing the viability of these possible explanations and identifying more is best left to experts in sociology, demography, statistics, and related fields.
In tinkering with the matter, it would help to consider added factors. One is that despite the increase by tens of thousands in the number of voters, thousands of others have been delisted from the voter’s roll in their usual precincts.
Have their names been deleted, and if so, was there a corresponding deduction made in the number of registered voters? Or could it be that their names were just transferred to a precinct unknown to them, which they cannot locate, and so making it possible for somebody else to vote for them?
It is worth noting the truckloads of non-Maranao people coming from Iligan city and neighboring areas brought to Marawi and Lanao del Sur towns on May 14.
Is Comelec now allowing nonresident voters in Lanao del Sur? Because they claimed their ballots without so many hitches, their names are surely in the voter’s roll.
Finally, it could be that the basic thesis put forward by election monitors, the “meteoric rise” in the number of registered voters between 2004 and 2007, is not mysterious after all, and therefore not the real question.
The voter increase could be justified: That the Maranao people were not as much interested in exercising their right of suffrage then as now. But are they letting other warm bodies do the voting for them?








